Analytics
Yes is at 12%, down 10 points from 22% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
Across the 342 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 24 Oct 2026 (12 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 45.5% on 27 Nov 2025 and the lowest 3.6% on 9 May 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 12.4%; a month before, 10.4%. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 41.5% on 25 Dec 2025.
$128.49 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $624.83K since listing. The order book holds $23.85K, with a 0.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is RememberAmalek with 38.5K shares; the largest No position is alwaysOn with 14K. Ten wallets hold 78.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 4:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 342 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 22.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 12.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 38.48K |
| gods-eye | Yes | 16.23K |
| alwaysOn | No | 14.03K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-iran-withdraw-from-the-npt-before-2027
| MEPP |
| No |
| 13.34K |
| agagyu | No | 13.01K |
| Valen9 | No | 13K |
| jesus911 | Yes | 10.37K |
| tetrase | No | 4.59K |
| denizz | No | 3.59K |
| delphy | No | 3.05K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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