Analytics
Resolved Yes on 13 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 90%. Yes opened at 75.5% on 7 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 117 daily closes on record from 7 Feb 2026 to 13 Jun 2026 (10 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 95.5% on 20 Feb 2026 and the lowest 44.5% on 3 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 44.5% on 3 Jun 2026. $35.02K traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 14, 4:56 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 117 points, 7 Feb 2026 – 13 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | 75.5% |
| 13 Jun 2026 | 90.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| troim | No | 599.99 |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | No | 540.52 |
| JuliusNakamoto | No | 164.98 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gemini-3-score-on-frontiermath-benchmark-by-june-30
| No |
| 150.01 |
| kanshifu | No | 61.5 |
| Jade Falcon FFA5 | Yes | 51.2 |
| test0ne | No | 33.67 |
| cryptedgor | No | 30 |
| dodgerlive | No | 20.59 |
| greyireland | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
