Analytics
Resolved Yes on 15 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 70% on 2 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 2 Jun 2026 to 15 Jun 2026, the highest close was 100% on 15 Jun 2026 and the lowest 53% on 9 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 77.5% on 12 Jun 2026. $1.26M traded over the market's life.
534 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 16, 12:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 2 Jun 2026 – 15 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jun 2026 | 70.0% |
| 15 Jun 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Skinny-Class | No | 32.08K |
| KRUNRG | No | 11.23K |
| humlegable | No | 10K |
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify). Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by
| No |
| 7.24K |
| toutiege | No | 6.22K |
| flashboys2 | No | 5.81K |
| Richdale | No | 4.64K |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | No | 4.42K |
| troim | No | 4K |
| rewrewrewrwe | No | 3K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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