Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 48% on 24 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 69 daily closes on record from 24 Jul 2026 to 1 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 100% on 1 Oct 2026 and the lowest 20.5% on 3 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 66 points up, to 100% on 1 Oct 2026. $18.99K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 69 points, 24 Jul 2026 – 1 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 48.0% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| libratus1 | No | 1.05K |
| 8dcc906a9b | No | 160 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | No | 120 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31
| PPMT | No | 29.93 |
| Rain-Prob-01 | No | 18.33 |
| Coral Beacon 7E5B | No | 8 |
| Slow-Exhibit | No | 6 |
| ggeasynore | No | 5 |
| asdasdasdasdasdasdasd | Yes | 0.72 |
| 86fgh | No | 0.46 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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