Analytics
Yes is at 11%, down 28 points from 39% when the market opened on 13 Nov 2025.
Across the 316 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (34 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 74.5% on 24 Jun 2026 and the lowest 11% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 17%; a month before, 29.5%. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 15% on 14 Nov 2025.
2 ranks second of the 6 outcomes in “Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?”. 1 leads at 89%; 3 is at 0.3%.
$17 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $476.61K since listing. The order book holds $13.77K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $8.78K bought Yes and $15.6K bought No; the largest was a $5.07K buy of No at 75.0¢.
The largest Yes position is gopfan2 with 91.7K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 163.9K. Ten wallets hold 84.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 2 Mar 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 11:12 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 316 points, 13 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 39.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 11.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 163.92K |
| gopfan2 | Yes | 91.7K |
| Orion96 | Yes | 13.13K |
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record
| troim |
| Yes |
| 9K |
| SS123 | Yes | 7.34K |
| russell110320 | No | 6.76K |
| Miojinho | Yes | 5K |
| Violet Oracle 990F | Yes | 3.38K |
| Corny-Hyphenation | Yes | 2.85K |
| donthackme | Yes | 2.73K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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