Analytics
Yes is at 0.3%, down 40 points from 40% when the market opened on 13 Nov 2025.
Across the 325 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (25 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 40% on 13 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 7 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.3%; a month before, 0.5%. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 15.5% on 14 Nov 2025.
3 ranks third of the 6 outcomes in “Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?”. 1 leads at 88.5%; 2 is at 11%.
$536.66K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $62.17K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $66.37 bought Yes and $26K bought No; the largest was a $1.5K buy of No at 99.8¢.
The largest Yes position is Gennedy with 32K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 163.9K. Ten wallets hold 85.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 2 Mar 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 6:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 325 points, 13 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 40.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 0.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 163.92K |
| Gennedy | Yes | 32.03K |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes | 29.87K |
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record
| Swift Maven 1848 | Yes | 17.12K |
| px1 | Yes | 12.53K |
| CriptanTDA | Yes | 6.49K |
| imagineall | Yes | 6.25K |
| GrandNegroniSlurpClub | Yes | 6.01K |
| PCMTest | Yes | 5.9K |
| 387411007415611814092217897387 | Yes | 3.75K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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