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Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.
“Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?” is a culture prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Mar 2, 2027 UTC. As of Sep 28, 10:50 PM UTC, Yes trades at 0.3¢, a 0.3% implied chance, $97.95 traded in the last 24 hours, $58.48K resting in the order book, a 0.2% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 314 daily price points from Nov 13, 2025 UTC to Sep 28, 2026 UTC (Yes between 0.3% and 54.0%); 241 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 80.9% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 128 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 314 points · 13 Nov 2025 – 28 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 20.5% |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 0.3% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 148.32K |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes | 33.85K |
| Degencrew | Yes |
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 10.41K |
| Eia | Yes | 9.25K |
| PCMTest | Yes | 8.41K |
| Gennedy | Yes | 8.09K |
| 896330449 | Yes | 6.5K |
| yurlppy | Yes | 6.15K |
| kgg001 | Yes | 5.94K |
| imagineall | Yes | 5.91K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
