Analytics
Yes is at 26.5%, about where the market opened on 4 Jul 2026.
Across the 109 daily closes on record from 4 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 28.5% on 22 Jul 2026 and the lowest 7.5% on 20 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 16%; a month before, 15.5%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 28.5% on 22 Jul 2026.
$9.08K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $118.26K since listing. The order book holds $2.54K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.39K bought Yes and $20.52K bought No; the largest was a $5K buy of No at 84.4¢.
The largest Yes position is Contentious-Dinnerdate with 4K shares; the largest No position is Wickier with 2.7K. Ten wallets hold 63% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:15 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 109 points, 4 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2026 | 26.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 26.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yes | 4.02K |
| singularityman | Yes | 3.03K |
| Wickier | No | 2.74K |
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that directly has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major Chinese AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No". A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a removal of general public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify. "Major Chinese AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: DeepSeek, Baidu (ERNIE), Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, MiniMax, Tencent (Hunyuan) and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify. The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major Chinese AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action. The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major Chinese model by the resolution date, will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-government-removes-public-access-to-a-major-chinese-ai-model-in-2026-20260703203328223
| ifyouloveme |
| No |
| 1.6K |
| mangaloes | Yes | 1.16K |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No | 1K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 981.86 |
| melonmanm | No | 786.88 |
| johnny2k | Yes | 689.2 |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | No | 541.13 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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