Analytics
Yes is at 5.3%, down 17 points from 22.5% when the market opened on 29 May 2026.
Across the 150 daily closes on record from 29 May 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 22.5% on 29 May 2026 and the lowest 3.5% on 12 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.8%; a month before, 5.5%. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 13.5% on 30 May 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?”.
$52.5K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $38.95K, with a 0.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.14K bought Yes and $13.16K bought No; the largest was a $1.6K buy of No at 92.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Porx with 2.7K shares; the largest No position is dpnd with 1.9K. Ten wallets hold 66.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 7:40 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 150 points, 29 May 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 May 2026 | 22.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 5.4% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the Trump administration and the Government of Ukraine, which creates a binding obligation for the United States to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the United States must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations. Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked. Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify. Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024, US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees. A qualifying agreement must be jointly announced and finalized, and take the form of a treaty, executive agreement, memorandum of understanding, joint declaration, or equivalent written instrument. Announcements that are statements of intent, contingent, exploratory, or otherwise not indicative of a formalized policy will not count. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-agrees-to-give-ukraine-security-guarantee-by-december-31
| Pantheon1 |
| No |
| 1.26K |
| DeverNoom | Yes | 1K |
| stavr | Yes | 996.4 |
| miltern | Yes | 763.72 |
| 007-Bond | No | 702.03 |
| ran | No | 645.79 |
| Haradwaith | No | 612.09 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
