Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.1%. Yes opened at 59.5% on 24 Sep 2025. Before it settled, the high was 59.5% on 24 Sep 2025 and the low 0.9% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 34% on 2 Nov 2025. $273.2K traded over the market's life.
170 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 1:56 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 101 points, 24 Sep 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2025 | 59.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ololololololololo | Yes | 10.01K |
| Ceiling-Ling | Yes | 9.4K |
| Yurqo | Yes | 5.88K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces strikes Moscow municipality, or any target within the municipality, between August 25 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ukraine-hits-moscow-by-september-30
| Yes |
| 5.7K |
| cynical-reason | Yes | 4.73K |
| DoubleKellogs | Yes | 2.76K |
| elgogd | Yes | 1.67K |
| Scrawny-Mole | Yes | 1.6K |
| misma | Yes | 1.38K |
| Bod110 | Yes | 1.2K |
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