Analytics
Yes is at 26.5%, down 19 points from 45% when the market opened on 10 Oct 2026.
Across the 17 daily closes on record from 10 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 45% on 10 Oct 2026 and the lowest 22% on 17 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 24%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 22% on 17 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by ___?”.
$85.18 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $15.64K since listing. The order book holds $6.7K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 313 trades, $1.71K bought Yes and $2.57K bought No.
The largest Yes position is ArmageddonRewardsBilly with 600 shares; the largest No position is Viserys with 474. Ten wallets hold 77.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 4:08 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 10 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | 45.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 27.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes | 600 |
| Viserys | No | 473.75 |
| HerrieDavis | No | 453.37 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX makes a mobile phone plan available for purchase in the United States between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “SpaceX” refers to the company known as SpaceX at market creation. Changes to the names or branding of SpaceX, its subsidiaries, acquired carriers, or their mobile services will not affect resolution. A mobile phone plan means a mobile service sold directly by SpaceX or an entity it directly or indirectly controls that gives the subscriber a U.S. phone number with voice calls, text messaging, and mobile data. Voice calls and text messaging available only through third-party internet applications will not satisfy these requirements. A qualifying plan may use SpaceX’s own network, another carrier’s network, or a combination of satellite and terrestrial networks. Plans offered by a carrier that SpaceX acquires a controlling interest in will count once the acquisition is completed and the plan satisfies all other requirements of these rules. Satellite services sold as an add-on to another carrier's plan, such as T-Mobile's T-Satellite, will not count. A mobile phone plan is available when members of the general public are able to purchase it directly from SpaceX or an entity it directly or indirectly controls and activate and begin using the required voice, text messaging, and mobile data services. Availability to customers in at least one U.S. state will qualify. Availability limited to customers outside the United States, internal or employee testing, waitlists, and invite-only programs will not qualify. Announcements, pre-orders, and deposits alone will not qualify; the mobile phone plan must be available by the deadline. Acquiring spectrum licenses or network assets, or obtaining regulatory approval, alone will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Starlink and SpaceX (including their official websites and https://x.com/Starlink, https://x.com/SpaceX); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing:
| 0x49F206 |
| No |
| 297.83 |
| CARXE | Yes | 266.55 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 218.13 |
| tinman2 | Yes | 200.85 |
| pollution | No | 103.9 |
| Rapid Falcon 52AB | Yes | 93.96 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 88.8 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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