Analytics
Yes is at 1.2%, down 16 points from 17.5% when the market opened on 23 Sep 2026.
Across the 30 daily closes on record from 23 Sep 2026 to 23 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 19.5% on 24 Sep 2026 and the lowest 1.2% on 21 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.5%. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 12.5% on 25 Sep 2026.
↑ 50% ranks sixth of the 7 outcomes in “Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?”. ↓ 30% leads at 82.5%; ↓ 25% is at 16.6%.
$19.32K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $27.23K, with a 1.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 107 trades, $229.11 bought Yes and $8.11K bought No; the largest was a $2.49K buy of No at 88.0¢.
The largest Yes position is SitsToPee with 830 shares; the largest No position is The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA with 3K. Ten wallets hold 84.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 9 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 5:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 23 Sep 2026 – 23 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2026 | 17.5% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 1.2% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | No | 2.98K |
| SitsToPee | Yes | 829.5 |
| AiBird | Yes | 709.14 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Republican Party's hourly odds value in the "Senate Control 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com meets or exceeds the listed threshold for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the Republican Party's hourly odds value is below the listed threshold ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for the Republican Party (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the Republican Party in the "Senate Control 2026" listing before November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing the Republican Party from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for the Republican Party between market creation and November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to "Yes" if the Republican Party is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Republican Party in the "Senate Control 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-control-2026.html and on the Republican Party's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Official listing:
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly |
| Yes |
| 500 |
| RememberAmalek | No | 280.25 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 219.99 |
| AJSV | Yes | 212.03 |
| Jesetrading | No | 200 |
| Antony82 | No | 200 |
| Convex79 | Yes | 166.6 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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