
The OpenAI side is at 15%, down 13 points from 27.5% when the market opened on 20 May 2026.
Across the 156 daily closes on record from 20 May 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50.5% on 15 Jun 2026 and the lowest 6% on 4 Oct 2026. A week before that last close the OpenAI side was at 9.5%; a month before, 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 24.5% on 3 Jul 2026.
$132.58 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $12.58K since listing. The order book holds $927.1, with a 10.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 183 trades, $536.87 bought OpenAI and $3.79K bought Meta.
The largest OpenAI position is MaxEnt with 799 shares; the largest Meta position is MaxPowell with 748. Ten wallets hold 73.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 5 Jan 2027, 70 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 4:50 AM UTC
The paper ticket needs a verified Yes / No pair, which this market does not have here.
Open in PredictionsDaily closes of the OpenAI price, Polymarket CLOB, 156 points, 20 May 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | OpenAI price |
|---|---|
| 20 May 2026 | 27.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 15.0% |
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for December 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for the private company is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. If OpenAI's valuation is equal to Meta's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
| Contentious-Dinnerdate |
| OpenAI |
| 603.84 |
| Jesetrading | Meta | 580.46 |
| Violet Vector B233 | OpenAI | 544.61 |
| Finished-Subconscious | OpenAI | 450.72 |
| Kharekk | Meta | 416.59 |
| thebetter1234 | Meta | 392.12 |
| Ready-Jungle | Meta | 357.45 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/openai-vs-meta-higher-valuation-on-december-31
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page