Analytics
Yes is at 53.5%, up 1.5 points from 52% when the market opened on 1 Feb 2026.
Across the 230 daily closes on record from 1 Feb 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (41 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 91.5% on 10 Sep 2026 and the lowest 10.5% on 15 Feb 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 57%; a month before, 67.5%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 25% on 5 Feb 2026.
It is one of 7 markets under “OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?”.
$250.7K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.95K, with a 33.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.2K bought Yes and $11.04K bought No; the largest was a $15.28K sell of No at 57.0¢.
The largest Yes position is 2B9S with 153 shares; the largest No position is Flaner with 333. Ten wallets hold 59.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 2:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 230 points, 1 Feb 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2026 | 52.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 53.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Flaner | No | 332.94 |
| 387411007415611814092217897387 | No | 168.34 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 152.84 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-above
| Gausslois | No | 110.99 |
| Dimpled-Foal | No | 108.89 |
| haha0217 | Yes | 100 |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yes | 96.96 |
| LatoyaMendoza5181 | No | 94 |
| rolller | No | 91.24 |
| Started-with-20-USD | Yes | 82.83 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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