Analytics
Yes is at 35.5%, up 13 points from 22.5% when the market opened on 1 Feb 2026.
Across the 242 daily closes on record from 1 Feb 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (29 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 77.5% on 9 Sep 2026 and the lowest 5% on 14 Feb 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 44.5%; a month before, 60.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 36.5% on 15 Aug 2026.
It is one of 7 markets under “OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?”.
$11.18 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $56.32K since listing. The order book holds $1.73K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.03K bought Yes and $3.92K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Jesetrading with 1.4K shares; the largest No position is DancewithRisk with 611. Ten wallets hold 57.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 2:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 242 points, 1 Feb 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2026 | 22.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 35.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Jesetrading | Yes | 1.41K |
| jpurd17 | Yes | 789.07 |
| DancewithRisk | No | 610.66 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-above
| Gausslois |
| No |
| 363.6 |
| DEGENKHAN | No | 314.44 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 292.87 |
| romeodeanio | Yes | 200 |
| rhinogiraffe | No | 183.2 |
| 5atka | No | 178.62 |
| Odd-Relish | No | 158.43 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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