Analytics
Yes is at 69.8%, up 8.1 points from 61.8% when the market opened on 13 Oct 2026.
Across the 14 daily closes on record from 13 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 70.3% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 61.8% on 13 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 70.3%.
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate is the favourite of the 4 outcomes in “Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?”, ahead of No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate at 29.9%.
$4.35K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $75.3K since listing. The order book holds $37.74K, with a 1.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.72K bought Yes and $3.24K bought No.
The largest Yes position is C03B with 11.9K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 15.9K. Ten wallets hold 89.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:11 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 13 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 55%–75%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | 61.8% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 69.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 15.87K |
| C03B | Yes | 11.95K |
| lissartter | Yes | 858.64 |
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-wins-the-senate-pending-hormuz-agreement-by-oct-23-and-oil-below-80
| rocky42016 |
| No |
| 820.39 |
| balthazar | Yes | 693.79 |
| MrMelonHead | Yes | 693.71 |
| Bright Sphinx 1B73 | Yes | 620.47 |
| qianbei | Yes | 600 |
| Antony82 | No | 501.88 |
| IDKAAA | Yes | 491.32 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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