Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?

Across the 13 daily closes on record from 13 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 32% on 19 Oct 2026 and the lowest 29.3% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 29.8%.

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate ranks second of the 4 outcomes in “Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?”. No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate leads at 70.3%; Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate is at 0.1%.

$3.42K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $90.73K since listing. The order book holds $33.7K, with a 0.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.66K bought Yes and $4.48K bought No; the largest was a $1.13K buy of No at 69.9¢.

The largest Yes position is C03B with 11.9K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 15.9K. Ten wallets hold 87.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.

Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.