Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?

Across the 15 daily closes on record from 13 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 2.8% on 15 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 27 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.1%.

Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate ranks third of the 4 outcomes in “Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?”. No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate leads at 69.8%; No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate is at 29.9%.

$202 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $125.65K since listing. The order book holds $17.86K, with a 0.05% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 316 trades, $756.66 bought Yes and $26.93K bought No; the largest was a $7.47K buy of No at 98.0¢.

The largest Yes position is Contestable-Parfait with 6.9K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 15.9K. Ten wallets hold 86.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.

Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.