Analytics
Resolved Yes on 19 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 79.5% on 7 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 7 Oct 2026 to 19 Oct 2026, the highest close was 99.9% on 19 Oct 2026 and the lowest 60.3% on 14 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 28 points up, to 88.3% on 15 Oct 2026. $70.29K traded over the market's life.
67 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 20, 3:04 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 7 Oct 2026 – 19 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Oct 2026 | 79.5% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | 99.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | No | 4.96K |
| troim | No | 2K |
| wallet-account-test | No | 2K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) and Flávio Bolsonaro participate in the same televised Brazilian presidential debate by October 24, 2026, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro must each speak at least once in the same debate, televised live. Virtual live participation will qualify. Prerecorded appearances will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the debate, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/lula-x-flavio-bolsonaro-debate-before-second-round
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