Analytics
Yes is at 29%, up 5 points from 24% when the market opened on 28 Oct 2026.
Across the 2 daily closes on record from 28 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026, the highest close was 29% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 24% on 28 Oct 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Iran full airspace closure by...?”.
$3.17K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $4.59K since listing. The order book holds $37.92K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 84 trades, $1.01K bought Yes and $771.23 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Worldly-Raft with 1K shares; the largest No position is KeithStarmer with 500. Ten wallets hold 74.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 34 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 2:42 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 28 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 20%–35%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | 24.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 29.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Worldly-Raft | Yes | 1K |
| Ita10 | Yes | 896.83 |
| KeithStarmer | No | 500 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly |
| No |
| 399.98 |
| rocky42013 | No | 346.09 |
| Porx | No | 300 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 294.02 |
| MrNoItAll | No | 238.38 |
| KakiBatusik | Yes | 218.58 |
| RGBluey | No | 208 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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