Analytics
Yes is at 32%, down 27 points from 59.5% when the market opened on 28 Jul 2026.
Across the 89 daily closes on record from 28 Jul 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 63.5% on 2 Aug 2026 and the lowest 17.5% on 26 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 29.5%; a month before, 23%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 44% on 3 Aug 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Iran full airspace closure by...?”.
$10.86K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $748.69K since listing. The order book holds $46.38K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $19.6K bought Yes and $68.4K bought No; the largest was a $8.36K buy of No at 61.0¢.
The largest Yes position is kaoya with 22.3K shares; the largest No position is Valen9 with 32.2K. Ten wallets hold 64.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:02 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 89 points, 28 Jul 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2026 | 59.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 32.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Valen9 | No | 32.18K |
| kaoya | Yes | 22.32K |
| tieguanyin | Yes | 21.47K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
| DonJoey1 |
| Yes |
| 20.16K |
| Crimson Ledger E462 | Yes | 15.65K |
| jiezhi | No | 15.19K |
| Raskell | No | 12.81K |
| guagua11 | No | 10.57K |
| puer | No | 9.45K |
| baixia | No | 8.57K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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