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“DeepSeek announces a training pause by October 31?” is a tech prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Nov 1, 2026 UTC. As of Sep 26, 6:08 PM UTC, Yes trades at 2.9¢, a 2.9% implied chance, $449.45 traded in the last 24 hours, $733.29 resting in the order book, a 1.7% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 12 daily price points from Sep 16, 2026 UTC to Sep 26, 2026 UTC (Yes between 2.9% and 7.5%); 11 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 99.8% of the loaded shares; 10 recent public fills from 9 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 12 points · 16 Sep 2026 – 26 Sep 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–12%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | 7.5% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | 2.9% |
On August 18, 2026, OpenAI announced it had paused some frontier reinforcement learning training to meet alignment, security, and monitoring standards, and on September 1, 2026, Anthropic disclosed that it had paused some training following unauthorized actions by its models. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it has paused or will pause training of one or more of its AI models over safety, alignment, or security concerns between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, and must state that the company has paused, is pausing, or will pause training, or must disclose a pause that the company had not previously announced. The company must itself attribute the pause, at least in part, to safety, alignment, or security concerns. A pause of any duration qualifies, including a pause limited to particular models, training methods, or training environments. Statements that describe slowing development, adding review steps, or considering a pause without stating that training has been or will be paused will not qualify. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the pause is actually carried out, is later modified or withdrawn, or training later resumes. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-ai-labs-announce-a-training-pause-by-october-31
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 23.45 |
| chessplayer | No | 23.45 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 21 |
| TheBigMuscle | No | 20 |
| orbitalcoins2 | Yes | 12.85 |
| Bsau4 | Yes | 10.27 |
| rafb | No | 10.27 |
| ChebupeliFlex | No | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard