Analytics
Yes is at 17.5%, down 4 points from 21.5% when the market opened on 10 Jul 2026.
The high was 36% on 20 Jul 2026 and the low 13.5% on 6 Aug 2026. A week ago Yes was at 16.5%; a month ago, 20.5%. Its largest one-day move was 8 points up, to 25% on 11 Sep 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?”.
$5.89K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.82M since listing. The order book holds $152.37K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $20.1K bought Yes and $111.96K bought No; the largest was a $34.59K buy of No at 85.0¢.
The largest Yes position is RememberAmalek with 222.7K shares; the largest No position is Renan2030 with 102.4K. Ten wallets hold 57.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 75 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 18, 2:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 98 points, 10 Jul 2026 – 18 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2026 | 21.5% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | 17.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 222.68K |
| Renan2030 | No | 102.38K |
| 65765757 | No | 87.12K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by
| GayPride |
| Yes |
| 65.48K |
| hymolu | No | 60K |
| BigRabbit | Yes | 60K |
| monitoringthesituation1 | Yes | 45.12K |
| anoin123 | No | 44.34K |
| mr.oziVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 44K |
| 5038813185 | Yes | 40.2K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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