Analytics
Yes is at 23%, up 2.5 points from 20.5% when the market opened on 23 Sep 2026.
Across the 29 daily closes on record from 23 Sep 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 23.5% on 28 Sep 2026 and the lowest 15.5% on 29 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 18.5%; a month before, 20.5%. Its largest one-day move was 8 points down, to 15.5% on 29 Sep 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “AI bubble burst by...?”.
$1.01K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $37.63K since listing. The order book holds $16.11K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 294 trades, $2.85K bought Yes and $7.49K bought No; the largest was a $2.72K buy of No at 81.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Violet-Embellishment with 2.8K shares; the largest No position is pmcb with 1.9K. Ten wallets hold 79.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 4:12 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 23 Sep 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2026 | 20.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 21.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Violet-Embellishment | Yes | 2.79K |
| pmcb | No | 1.91K |
| 0xdc3E831cad | No | 1.6K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. For clarity, ‘within 90 days of this market’s specified timeframe’ means that three qualifying events must occur within a single 90-day window that ends no later than the market’s final resolution deadline. For example, with a December 31, 2026 deadline, if Event A occurs on January 10, Event B on February 5, and Event C on March 3 of 2026, this would qualify because all three fall within one 90-day span. By contrast, if Event A occurs on January 10, Event B on April 20, and Event C on November 1 of 2026, they would not qualify because they do not occur within the same 90-day window. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ai-bubble-burst-by
| 0x49F206 |
| No |
| 1.6K |
| Wojtek | Yes | 1.18K |
| goatboss | Yes | 810.56 |
| Ondra | Yes | 724.35 |
| Keen Beacon EC95 | Yes | 640.48 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No | 584 |
| TheKinginYellow | No | 499.86 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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