Analytics
Yes is at 7.8%, down 35 points from 42.5% when the market opened on 21 Nov 2025.
Across the 339 daily closes on record from 21 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 46.5% on 22 Nov 2025 and the lowest 5% on 30 Dec 2025. A week before that last close Yes was at 10.6%; a month before, 10.1%. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 5% on 30 Dec 2025.
It is one of 2 markets under “AI bubble burst by...?”.
$720.92 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.52M since listing. The order book holds $30.86K, with a 1.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.31K bought Yes and $46.38K bought No; the largest was a $9.06K buy of No at 91.3¢.
The largest Yes position is recessionincoming with 38.2K shares; the largest No position is deltasniper with 15.5K. Ten wallets hold 47.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 11:10 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 339 points, 21 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Nov 2025 | 42.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 7.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| recessionincoming | Yes | 38.25K |
| deltasniper | No | 15.52K |
| goatboss | Yes | 7.74K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ai-bubble-burst-by
| mazw8 |
| No |
| 7.53K |
| darlok | No | 7.38K |
| phantomtradr | No | 6.35K |
| Violet-Embellishment | Yes | 6.2K |
| illumination | Yes | 5.94K |
| 0xdc3E831cad | No | 4.23K |
| scottycam | No | 4.14K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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