Analytics
ManipulationOfRisk has made $2.61K on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 50 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-10-23 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Trump meet with Dario Amodei by October 31, 2026? | No | 465.18 | $0.840 | $416.34 | +$25.44 |
 |
| Category | Realized PnL | Volume | Trades | Markets | Win rate | Position value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| politics | +$40.59 | $41.59 | 3 | 2 | 50.0% | $0 |
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? | buy | 80.97 | $0.618 | $50 | 46m ago |
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-10-23 19:52 UTC
Polymarket public position response
50 open positions returned; page coverage partial
2026-10-25 18:56 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
Recent fills unavailable
2026-10-25 18:56 UTC
polymarket positions
51 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-10-23 19:52 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $4.95K and losing ones cost $3.45K across the latest 50 settled positions. 58% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $564.64 on “Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 25, 2026?” (Yes); the largest loss, $456.05 on “Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?” (No).
It has traded 857 markets. Most of the volume is in politics ($41.59). Its open positions are worth $4.75K across 69 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| No |
| 452.24 |
| $0.785 |
| $402.49 |
| +$47.49 |
 Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu by October 31, 2026? | No | 355.42 | $0.875 | $346.71 | +$35.71 |
 Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | Yes | 305.53 | $0.769 | $232.21 | -$2.79 |
 Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026? | No | 233.66 | $0.907 | $230.74 | +$18.74 |
 Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman by October 31, 2026? | No | 231.84 | $0.910 | $228.13 | +$17.13 |
| Will Trump meet with Sam Altman by October 31, 2026? | No | 261.51 | $0.803 | $220.98 | +$10.98 |
 Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? | No | 337.67 | $0.592 | $211.04 | +$11.04 |
 Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? | No | 209.66 | $0.911 | $206.72 | +$15.72 |
| Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by October 31, 2026? | No | 213.26 | $0.891 | $205.69 | +$15.69 |
 Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by October 31, 2026? | No | 132.58 | $0.905 | $121.31 | +$1.31 |
 US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | No | 108.58 | $0.921 | $103.42 | +$3.42 |
 US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21? | Yes | 101.11 | $0.989 | $99.75 | -$0.25 |
 US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by October 31? | No | 95.12 | $0.862 | $88.46 | +$6.46 |
 Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? | Yes | 183.49 | $0.545 | $85.32 | -$14.67 |
 Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 94.52 | $0.793 | $77.03 | +$2.03 |
 Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by October 31, 2026? | No | 74.21 | $0.943 | $67.9 | -$2.1 |
 US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | Yes | 63.14 | $0.934 | $63.02 | +$4.01 |
 Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 70.42 | $0.710 | $59.51 | +$9.51 |
 Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? | Yes | 72.59 | $0.827 | $58.43 | -$1.57 |
 Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 59.34 | $0.910 | $58.18 | +$4.18 |
 Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | No | 59.7 | $0.854 | $55.23 | +$4.23 |
| Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026? | No | 57.47 | $0.870 | $51.44 | +$1.44 |
 Will Israel election happen as scheduled? | Yes | 53.62 | $0.932 | $50.11 | +$0.11 |
 Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by October 31? | Yes | 52.14 | $0.959 | $48.6 | -$1.4 |
| buy |
| 54.83 |
| $0.547 |
| $30 |
| 1h ago |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? | buy | 39.35 | $0.508 | $20 | 1h ago |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31? | sell | 21.05 | $0.003 | $0.06 | 1h ago |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? | buy | 36.6 | $0.546 | $20 | 2h ago |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? | buy | 37.69 | $0.531 | $20 | 2h ago |
Placed on fixed scales: no Radar board ranking was cached on this server when the profile was read, so no archetype is claimed. Not drawn for this wallet: 1 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.
