Analytics
Yes is at 16.5%, down 57 points from 73.5% when the market opened on 24 Sep 2026.
Across the 31 daily closes on record from 24 Sep 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 73.5% on 24 Sep 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 25 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 16%; a month before, 51.5%. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 39.5% on 25 Sep 2026.
$28.98 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.57K since listing. The order book holds $403.88, with a 17.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 138 trades, $534.23 bought Yes and $816.74 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 426 shares; the largest No position is ManipulationOfRisk with 452. Ten wallets hold 82.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Oct 2026, 3 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 1:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 31 points, 24 Sep 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | 73.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 16.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ManipulationOfRisk | No | 452.24 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 425.53 |
| silentblue | No | 152 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/houthis-successfully-target-shipping-bylptptpt
| cigarettes | Yes | 73.71 |
| GollumGekko | Yes | 72.94 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 55.45 |
| Cattail | No | 55 |
| h.h | No | 50 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 41.08 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 40 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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