Analytics
Yes is at 28.5%, down 5 points from 33.5% when the market opened on 25 Feb 2026.
Across the 235 daily closes on record from 25 Feb 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (12 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 67% on 4 Jul 2026 and the lowest 11.5% on 29 Apr 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 36%; a month before, 24.5%. Its largest one-day move was 33 points down, to 19.5% on 24 Jul 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Christine Lagarde out as ECB president by...?”.
$977.57 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $35.54K since listing. The order book holds $1.93K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $4.14K bought Yes and $5.6K bought No.
The largest Yes position is WarriorPooh with 1.1K shares; the largest No position is cc311 with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 54.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 8:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 235 points, 25 Feb 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Feb 2026 | 33.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 28.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| cc311 | No | 1.24K |
| 74-75 | No | 1.19K |
| WarriorPooh | Yes | 1.14K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christine Lagarde ceases to be the President of the European Central Bank for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lagarde's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/christine-lagarde-out-as-ecb-president-in-2026
| Newshound |
| Yes |
| 1.09K |
| Bonimba | Yes | 1.06K |
| hfv | No | 1.05K |
| troim | Yes | 999.97 |
| enrico-vasaio | No | 953.96 |
| willsom | Yes | 889.6 |
| HandlePressure | No | 800 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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