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Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | No | 7.49K | $0.850 | $6.41K | +$35.83 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No | buy | 6.14 | $0.860 | $5.28 | 1d ago |
 |
| Yes |
| 7.19K |
| $0.767 |
| $5.98K |
| +$464.54 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 10K | $0.425 | $4.65K | +$394.5 |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | Yes | 3.65K | $0.958 | $3.47K | -$22.66 |
 Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | Yes | 4.31K | $0.559 | $2.35K | -$62.39 |
 Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | No | 1.06K | $0.536 | $832.1 | +$264.3 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1K | $0.700 | $675 | -$25 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes | 703.14 | $0.630 | $460.56 | +$17.58 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | No | 581.63 | $0.380 | $200.66 | -$20.36 |
 Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | No | 200 | $0.560 | $173 | +$61 |
 Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 200 | $0.870 | $173 | -$1 |
 Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 247.1 | $0.632 | $118.61 | -$37.64 |
 Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 100 | $0.989 | $99.65 | +$0.75 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | No | 110.74 | $0.463 | $79.73 | +$28.47 |
 Trump meets with Putin by December 31? | No | 77.22 | $0.400 | $28.19 | -$2.7 |
 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 50 | $0.610 | $26.25 | -$4.25 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? | No | 25 | $0.812 | $23.5 | +$3.2 |
 Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 20 | $0.981 | $19.71 | +$0.09 |
 Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | Yes | 20 | $0.820 | $15.7 | -$0.7 |
 Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? | No | 15.07 | $0.810 | $14.24 | +$2.03 |
 Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026? | Yes | 205.51 | $0.647 | $13.36 | -$119.57 |
 Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | No | 10 | $0.860 | $9.15 | +$0.55 |
 Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | No | 6.56 | $0.890 | $5.97 | +$0.13 |
 Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 10 | $0.530 | $5.02 | -$0.27 |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? | No | 10 | $0.360 | $3.55 | -$0.05 |
| buy |
| 3K |
| $0.960 |
| $2.88K |
| 1d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes | buy | 703.14 | $0.630 | $442.98 | 1d ago |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30?No | buy | 68.99 | $0.200 | $13.8 | 1d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No | buy | 581.63 | $0.380 | $221.02 | 1d ago |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No | buy | 5 | $0.870 | $4.35 | 2d ago |
 Will AfD win at least 45% of all valid second votes?No | buy | 130 | $0.890 | $115.7 | 2d ago |
| Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?No | buy | 390.12 | $0.800 | $312.1 | 2d ago |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?No | buy | 10 | $0.360 | $3.6 | 5d ago |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Yes | sell | 2.3K | $0.570 | $1.31K | 6d ago |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.580 | $11.6 | 7d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 7.03K | $0.380 | $2.67K | 7d ago |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.470 | $47 | 9d ago |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?No | buy | 41 | $0.978 | $40.1 | 11d ago |
 Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 632.73 | $0.628 | $397.35 | 11d ago |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes | buy | 453.96 | $0.849 | $385.41 | 11d ago |
| Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 200 | $0.613 | $122.6 | 11d ago |
| Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 65.98 | $0.597 | $39.39 | 11d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.530 | $530 | 11d ago |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 6.56 | $0.890 | $5.84 | 13d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 2.57K | $0.650 | $1.67K | 13d ago |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No | buy | 20 | $0.981 | $19.62 | 18d ago |
 Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?No | sell | 42.75 | $0.170 | $7.27 | 22d ago |
 Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?Yes | buy | 145.08 | $0.983 | $142.61 | 22d ago |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Yes | sell | 200 | $0.140 | $28 | 24d ago |
 Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin August 11-17?No | buy | 20 | $0.840 | $16.8 | 25d ago |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?No | buy | 486.19 | $0.900 | $437.57 | 25d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 600 | $0.670 | $402 | 26d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 400 | $0.670 | $268 | 26d ago |
 Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?Yes | buy | 275.99 | $0.999 | $275.71 | 27d ago |
| Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.936 | $187.2 | 27d ago |
| Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?No | buy | 112.11 | $0.365 | $40.92 | 27d ago |
| Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.778 | $23.34 | 27d ago |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?No | buy | 13.12 | $0.852 | $11.17 | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes | sell | 1.71K | $0.791 | $1.36K | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No | sell | 89.91 | $0.860 | $77.32 | Jul 15, 2026 |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?No | sell | 50 | $0.440 | $22 | Jul 15, 2026 |
 Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes | sell | 955.77 | $0.349 | $333.66 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes | sell | 150 | $0.999 | $149.85 | Jul 15, 2026 |
 President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?Yes | sell | 319.23 | $0.946 | $302.06 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No | sell | 410.09 | $0.870 | $356.78 | Jul 15, 2026 |
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?No | sell | 899.99 | $0.998 | $898.19 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 2.2K | $0.952 | $2.09K | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?No | sell | 2K | $0.047 | $94 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 200 | $0.043 | $8.6 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?No | sell | 2K | $0.956 | $1.91K | Jul 15, 2026 |
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | sell | 10.2K | $0.227 | $2.32K | Jul 15, 2026 |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | sell | 10.26K | $0.581 | $5.96K | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes | sell | 2.68K | $0.803 | $2.15K | Jul 15, 2026 |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | sell | 349.07 | $0.196 | $68.42 | Jul 15, 2026 |