Analytics
Yes is at 4.5%, down 47 points from 51.5% when the market opened on 12 Nov 2025.
Across the 323 daily closes on record from 12 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (29 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51.5% on 12 Nov 2025 and the lowest 4% on 23 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.5%; a month before, 8%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 14.5% on 12 Dec 2025.
$689.66K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $21.42K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $812.89 bought Yes and $18.82K bought No; the largest was a $1.84K buy of No at 88.0¢.
The largest Yes position is HOD-Capital with 10K shares; the largest No position is denizz with 6.1K. Ten wallets hold 70.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 12:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 323 points, 12 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2025 | 51.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| HOD-Capital | Yes | 10.02K |
| denizz | No | 6.11K |
| pakukudolphi | No | 4.86K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-and-syria-normalize-relations-in-2025
| UpTight |
| Yes |
| 1.1K |
| Steel-Velodrome | Yes | 1K |
| MajidJavadi | No | 978.92 |
| ineedmassage | No | 962.54 |
| FastPaws | No | 690.31 |
| meagainsttheworld | Yes | 666.67 |
| lockitron | No | 501 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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