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Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 4.35 | $0.460 | $3.37 | +$1.37 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?No | buy | 2.39 | $0.540 | $1.29 | 3d ago |
|
| No |
| 2.39 |
| $0.540 |
| $1.85 |
| +$0.56 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 4.35 | $0.460 | $0.93 | -$1.07 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | Yes | 7.41 | $0.270 | $0.4 | -$1.6 |
| buy |
| 4.35 |
| $0.460 |
| $2 |
| 10d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 4.35 | $0.460 | $2 | 10d ago |
 Will Andy Burnham say "Starmer" during the next PMQ?No | buy | 2.7 | $0.740 | $2 | 12d ago |
| Will Andy Burnham say "Trump" during the next PMQ?No | buy | 3.28 | $0.610 | $2 | 12d ago |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?No | buy | 2.26 | $0.800 | $1.81 | 21d ago |
 Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No | buy | 2.82 | $0.710 | $2 | 24d ago |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 4.88 | $0.410 | $2 | 25d ago |
 S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 17?Up | buy | 3.85 | $0.520 | $2 | 28d ago |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No | buy | 2.63 | $0.760 | $2 | 28d ago |
 US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Yes | buy | 8 | $0.250 | $2 | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?Yes | buy | 8.33 | $0.240 | $2 | Aug 9, 2026 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?No | buy | 2.94 | $0.680 | $2 | Aug 9, 2026 |
 Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?No | buy | 4 | $0.500 | $2 | Aug 6, 2026 |
 Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or less in July?No | buy | 5.13 | $0.390 | $2 | Aug 5, 2026 |
 Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings?No | buy | 4.65 | $0.430 | $2 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5?Up | buy | 2.82 | $0.710 | $2 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?Yes | buy | 4.65 | $0.430 | $2 | Aug 4, 2026 |
 Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?No | buy | 4.08 | $0.490 | $2 | Aug 4, 2026 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Yes | buy | 2.6 | $0.770 | $2 | Aug 4, 2026 |
 Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $152 Week of August 3 2026?Yes | buy | 3.7 | $0.540 | $2 | Aug 3, 2026 |
 Will Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) beat quarterly earnings?Yes | buy | 3.39 | $0.590 | $2 | Aug 3, 2026 |
 Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June?Yes | buy | 7.02 | $0.285 | $2 | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No | buy | 3.03 | $0.660 | $2 | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?Yes | buy | 8.7 | $0.230 | $2 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.25 | $0.320 | $2 | Aug 1, 2026 |
 New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?Yes | buy | 3.82 | $0.510 | $1.95 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?Yes | buy | 3.99 | $0.499 | $1.99 | Jul 31, 2026 |
 Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 3 | $0.390 | $1.17 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?No | buy | 3.06 | $0.500 | $1.53 | Jul 31, 2026 |
 Will USA Today (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings?No | buy | 3 | $0.490 | $1.47 | Jul 30, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Iran" or "Israel" 10+ times during cabinet meeting?Yes | buy | 3.05 | $0.650 | $1.98 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?No | buy | 3.56 | $0.550 | $1.96 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?No | buy | 3.82 | $0.510 | $1.95 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Another pandemic before GTA VI?No | buy | 3.82 | $0.510 | $1.95 | Jul 28, 2026 |
 Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?No | buy | 3 | $0.380 | $1.14 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Michigan remarks?No | buy | 3 | $0.590 | $1.77 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of July 27 2026?No | buy | 2.79 | $0.710 | $1.98 | Jul 27, 2026 |
 Will Caesars Entertainment (CZR) beat quarterly earnings?No | buy | 2.79 | $0.710 | $1.98 | Jul 26, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Save America" during Michigan remarks?Yes | buy | 2.03 | $0.760 | $1.54 | Jul 26, 2026 |
 Will Yum Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?Yes | buy | 3.05 | $0.630 | $1.92 | Jul 25, 2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Yes | buy | 3.05 | $0.620 | $1.89 | Jul 25, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No | buy | 2.03 | $0.780 | $1.58 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 2.71 | $0.743 | $2.01 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?No | buy | 2.53 | $0.770 | $1.95 | Jul 23, 2026 |
 Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Yes | buy | 3.5 | $0.440 | $1.54 | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes | buy | 7.41 | $0.270 | $2 | Jul 22, 2026 |
 Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?Yes | buy | 3.05 | $0.650 | $1.98 | Jul 22, 2026 |