Analytics
Trading is closed with Yes last at 50%; no result has been reported.
Across the 440 daily closes on record from 3 May 2025 to 1 Aug 2026 (16 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 81% on 5 Jun 2025 and the lowest 16.5% on 5 May 2025. A week before that last close Yes was at 50.5%; a month before, 51.5%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 39% on 23 Jun 2025.
$757.16K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is Generator with 515 shares; the largest No position is Swift Meteor F4B1 with 190. Ten wallets hold 31.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 6:09 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 440 points, 3 May 2025 – 1 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 May 2025 | 60.0% |
| 1 Aug 2026 | 50.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Generator | Yes | 515.3 |
| FrosenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 228.42 |
| Swift Meteor F4B1 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Playboi Carti officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi
| No |
| 189.66 |
| Lunar Pioneer 3225 | Yes | 143.82 |
| Lunar Falcon 6DC1 | Yes | 121.71 |
| notilus | No | 114.32 |
| StewPid | No | 111.11 |
| frabbit | No | 101.2 |
| Keen Sphinx 3A65 | No | 96.63 |
| Rapid Tide D1F9 | No | 91 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
