Analytics
Trading is closed with Yes last at 50%; no result has been reported.
The high was 49.9% on 18 Jul 2026 and the low 11.5% on 13 May 2025. A week ago Yes was at 49.9%; a month ago, 49.5%. Its largest one-day move was 28 points up, to 46.5% on 7 Nov 2025.
$4.78M has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is Jade Quasar D7A7 with 4.8K shares; the largest No position is SaylorMC with 16.6K. Ten wallets hold 61.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 430 points, 3 May 2025 – 1 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 May 2025 | 15.5% |
| 1 Aug 2026 | 49.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SaylorMC | No | 16.6K |
| Scholarly-Condominium | No | 11.6K |
| ALEXd88989 | No | 7.47K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has a final "High" price of $1,000,000 or higher before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. The resolution source for Bitcoin is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi
| Jade Quasar D7A7 |
| Yes |
| 4.77K |
| Generator | Yes | 3.09K |
| betbetbet63 | Yes | 2.08K |
| Wasteoftime | Yes | 2.08K |
| Cappattack | No | 1.85K |
| Woozy-Purpose | No | 1.73K |
| value365 | No | 1.47K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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