Analytics
Trading is closed with Yes last at 50%; no result has been reported.
Across the 434 daily closes on record from 3 May 2025 to 1 Aug 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 52.5% on 6 Feb 2026 and the lowest 16.5% on 15 May 2025. A week before that last close Yes was at 50.5%; a month before, 50.5%. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 49.5% on 7 Nov 2025.
$1.94M has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is Amber Horizon 515D with 333 shares; the largest No position is 854A7843 with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 40.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 6:17 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 434 points, 3 May 2025 – 1 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 May 2025 | 18.0% |
| 1 Aug 2026 | 50.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 854A7843 | No | 1.22K |
| 888888888888 | No | 1.19K |
| 20mikemike | No | 1.02K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for China invading Taiwan will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be use
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi
| Mahalex4 |
| No |
| 980.39 |
| Keen Lynx 76C1 | No | 611.97 |
| ttica | No | 447.59 |
| Mature-Stitcher | No | 400 |
| Amber Horizon 515D | Yes | 333.34 |
| harrybolz | No | 262.88 |
| Poor-Cornmeal | No | 220 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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