Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?Yes | buy | 294.72 | $0.018 | $5.19 | Jun 4, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 66.07 |
| $0.050 |
| $3.3 |
| Jan 18, 2026 |
| Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No | sell | 384.69 | $0.001 | $0.38 | Jan 18, 2026 |
 Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes | sell | 600.63 | $0.002 | $1.18 | Jan 18, 2026 |
 Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes | sell | 560.35 | $0.001 | $0.57 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No | buy | 134.82 | $0.130 | $17.52 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes | buy | 283.61 | $0.018 | $5 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes | buy | 625 | $0.008 | $5 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No | buy | 249.88 | $0.080 | $19.99 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes | buy | 600.64 | $0.017 | $10 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes | buy | 560.35 | $0.026 | $14.7 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No | buy | 66.08 | $0.238 | $15.71 | Jan 15, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 131.57 | $0.028 | $3.68 | Jan 15, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 58.82 | $0.110 | $6.47 | Jan 15, 2026 |
 Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?Yes | sell | 164.7 | $0.034 | $5.56 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?Yes | buy | 164.71 | $0.051 | $8.4 | Jan 7, 2026 |
 Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?Yes | buy | 63.64 | $0.110 | $7 | Jan 7, 2026 |
 Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Yes | buy | 81.97 | $0.061 | $5 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 58.82 | $0.170 | $10 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 131.58 | $0.038 | $5 | Jan 5, 2026 |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 55.56 | $0.090 | $5 | Jan 5, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 442.11 | $0.018 | $8 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 410 | $0.013 | $5.33 | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?Yes | sell | 761.25 | $0.007 | $5.33 | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 761.25 | $0.008 | $6.09 | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?No | buy | 1.57K | $0.021 | $33 | Oct 29, 2025 |
 Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-10-11?Yes | buy | 23.53 | $0.068 | $1.6 | Oct 11, 2025 |
| Will Portugal vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw?Yes | buy | 87.5 | $0.114 | $10 | Oct 11, 2025 |
| Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-10-11?Yes | buy | 289.86 | $0.069 | $20 | Oct 11, 2025 |
 Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?No | buy | 4.86K | $0.007 | $33.55 | Aug 15, 2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?No | buy | 1.42K | $0.016 | $21.97 | Aug 15, 2025 |
 OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?Yes | sell | 318.54 | $0.040 | $12.74 | Aug 9, 2025 |
 GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | sell | 1.57K | $0.095 | $149.49 | Aug 9, 2025 |
 Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?Yes | sell | 76.97 | $0.935 | $71.99 | Aug 9, 2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?Yes | buy | 76.97 | $0.489 | $37.64 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 1.06K | $0.076 | $80 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 194.12 | $0.206 | $40 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?Yes | buy | 318.54 | $0.126 | $40 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 253 | $0.119 | $30 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 68.89 | $0.270 | $18.6 | Aug 7, 2025 |
 DeepSeek R2 released before May?Yes | buy | 868.67 | $0.041 | $35.81 | Apr 30, 2025 |
 DeepSeek V4 released before May?Yes | buy | 87.08 | $0.300 | $26.12 | Apr 27, 2025 |
| DeepSeek R2 released before May?Yes | buy | 115.91 | $0.233 | $27 | Apr 27, 2025 |
| DeepSeek R2 released before May?Yes | buy | 845.35 | $0.161 | $135.97 | Apr 26, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?Yes | buy | 2.32K | $0.035 | $81.03 | Apr 25, 2025 |
 Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?Yes | sell | 450.15 | $0.180 | $81.03 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?Yes | buy | 867.96 | $0.250 | $216.99 | Apr 16, 2025 |
| Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?Yes | buy | 450.16 | $0.190 | $85.53 | Apr 16, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.240 | $240 | Apr 16, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?Yes | buy | 720.75 | $0.368 | $265.39 | Apr 10, 2025 |