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Paper trading
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 27.5% on 8 Jan 2025. Before it settled, the high was 35% on 20 Jan 2025 and the low 0.1% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 14% on 6 Feb 2025. $336.97K traded over the market's life.
131 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 1, 9:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 360 points, 8 Jan 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Jan 2025 | 27.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Emerald Kestrel 66B6 | Yes | 9.74K |
| 5ithis | Yes | 4.28K |
| sylverlinx | Yes | 2.38K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/openai-announces-it-has-achieved-agi-in-2025
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Venerated-Breakfast | Yes | 1.56K |
| acal | Yes | 1.5K |
| 7Embers | Yes | 1.5K |
| 00000000AAAAAAAA | Yes | 1K |
| Yearly-Simple | Yes | 810.08 |
| ThePureGenius | Yes | 617.29 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 439 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard