
Resolved No on 1 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 36% on 28 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 94 daily closes on record from 28 Jan 2025 to 1 May 2025, the highest close was 46.5% on 15 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 46.5% on 15 Feb 2025. $154.72K traded over the market's life.
22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 94 points, 28 Jan 2025 – 1 May 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jan 2025 | 36.0% |
| 1 May 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| worldkoala | Yes | 499.98 |
| Nobi9630 | Yes | 347.16 |
| bagholder99 | Yes | 85.3 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count, however versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public. The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/deepseek-v4-released-before-may
| Yes |
| 50 |
| MatanE | Yes | 37.5 |
| Azzor | Yes | 26.32 |
| DirtDoc | Yes | 13.89 |
| lucasrean | Yes | 13.78 |
| iTux | Yes | 4 |
| Alexxandr12 | Yes | 2.78 |
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