Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | 20.46 | $0.540 | $10.95 | -$0.1 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | sell | 0.38 | $0.850 | $0.32 | 5d ago |
 |
| No |
| 3.79 |
| $0.750 |
| $3.43 |
| +$0.59 |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 50.61 | $0.180 | $3.29 | -$5.82 |
 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 3.32 | $0.407 | $3.07 | +$1.72 |
 Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 2.77 | $0.730 | $2.39 | +$0.37 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | No | 1.5 | $0.750 | $1.42 | +$0.3 |
 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 1.39 | $0.850 | $1.33 | +$0.15 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 9.75 | $0.400 | $1.32 | -$2.58 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 0.97 | $0.850 | $0.83 | +$0 |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Yes | 13.84 | $0.250 | $0.76 | -$2.7 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 6.64 | $0.250 | $0.63 | -$1.03 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | Yes | 36.49 | $0.037 | $0.35 | -$1 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 4.76 | $0.210 | $0.31 | -$0.69 |
| sell |
| 0.15 |
| $0.940 |
| $0.14 |
| 15d ago |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?No | sell | 0.04 | $0.930 | $0.04 | 15d ago |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?No | sell | 0.07 | $0.930 | $0.07 | 16d ago |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 3.32 | $0.407 | $1.35 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?No | buy | 1.76 | $0.750 | $1.32 | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?Yes | buy | 36.49 | $0.037 | $1.35 | Jul 21, 2026 |
 Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Yes | buy | 4.83 | $0.400 | $1.93 | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 9.23 | $0.130 | $1.2 | Jul 2, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes | buy | 1.51 | $0.880 | $1.33 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.64 | $0.250 | $1.66 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 50.61 | $0.180 | $9.11 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?No | buy | 3.79 | $0.750 | $2.84 | Jul 1, 2026 |
 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?Yes | buy | 1.13 | $0.998 | $1.13 | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?Yes | buy | 1.19 | $0.998 | $1.19 | Jul 1, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes | buy | 44.14 | $0.070 | $3.09 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes | buy | 14.31 | $0.360 | $5.15 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No | buy | 3.07 | $0.690 | $2.12 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No | buy | 1.58 | $0.690 | $1.09 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes | buy | 49.26 | $0.500 | $24.63 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes | buy | 5.85 | $0.200 | $1.17 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes | buy | 5.85 | $0.200 | $1.17 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 20.46 | $0.540 | $11.05 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?No | buy | 1.36 | $0.996 | $1.35 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?No | buy | 2.77 | $0.730 | $2.02 | Jun 1, 2026 |
 Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.43 | $0.740 | $1.06 | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 3.65 | $0.740 | $2.7 | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | buy | 1.35 | $0.850 | $1.15 | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 31.13 | $0.150 | $4.67 | Jun 1, 2026 |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?No | buy | 1.09 | $0.960 | $1.05 | May 10, 2026 |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 2.41 | $0.780 | $1.88 | May 9, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?No | buy | 2.28 | $0.960 | $2.19 | May 9, 2026 |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 19.5 | $0.400 | $7.8 | May 9, 2026 |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 3.48 | $0.400 | $1.39 | May 9, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 1.44 | $0.770 | $1.11 | May 9, 2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Yes | buy | 13.84 | $0.250 | $3.46 | May 9, 2026 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 12.86 | $0.560 | $7.2 | May 9, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 40.45 | $0.560 | $22.65 | May 9, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30?Yes | buy | 9.52 | $0.210 | $2 | May 1, 2026 |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 2.91 | $0.350 | $1.02 | May 1, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 4.88 | $0.410 | $2 | May 1, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes | buy | 9.75 | $0.400 | $3.9 | May 1, 2026 |
 Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Yes | buy | 1.96 | $0.530 | $1.04 | Apr 12, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes | buy | 4.76 | $0.210 | $1 | Apr 11, 2026 |
 US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?Yes | buy | 19.62 | $0.059 | $1.16 | Apr 11, 2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No | sell | 0.19 | $0.840 | $0.16 | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No | sell | 0.04 | $0.830 | $0.03 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No | sell | 0.07 | $0.830 | $0.06 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No | sell | 0.05 | $0.830 | $0.04 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No | sell | 0.14 | $0.830 | $0.12 | Apr 9, 2026 |