Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 31% on 25 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 80 daily closes on record from 25 Mar 2026 to 1 Jul 2026 (19 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 38% on 28 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 28 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 8% on 24 May 2026. $4.39M traded over the market's life.
629 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 80 points, 25 Mar 2026 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Mar 2026 | 31.0% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | Yes | 51.2K |
| ethBELIVER | Yes | 42.24K |
| dddad1 | Yes | 41.22K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by
| Pushy-Hexagon | Yes | 39.66K |
| ProfitMuhammedPBUH | Yes | 21.53K |
| Skinny-Class | Yes | 21.27K |
| saosin | Yes | 15K |
| Ringed-Gambling | Yes | 12.61K |
| AbAbCD | Yes | 12.5K |
| mebad | Yes | 10.15K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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