Analytics
Resolved No on 27 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.4%. Yes opened at 66.5% on 16 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 16 Jun 2026 to 27 Jun 2026, the highest close was 66.5% on 16 Jun 2026 and the lowest 1.7% on 27 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 41 points up, to 64.5% on 19 Jun 2026. $675.69K traded over the market's life.
277 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 28, 5:52 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 16 Jun 2026 – 27 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Jun 2026 | 66.5% |
| 27 Jun 2026 | 1.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ProfitMuhammedPBUH | Yes | 7K |
| proxidev | Yes | 5.11K |
| coali10 | Yes | 4.78K |
| mxjarvisbuilds | Yes | 2.42K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/claude-fable-5-restored-for-us-customers-by-20260613193753196
| 0x8712 | Yes | 2K |
| Well-Lit-Puppet | Yes | 1.8K |
| dontbullymeillcum | Yes | 1.68K |
| JAMJAMJAM4 | Yes | 1.64K |
| as81119 | Yes | 1.59K |
| mcancel | Yes | 1.44K |
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