Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98%. Yes opened at 50% on 7 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 34 daily closes on record from 7 Mar 2026 to 1 May 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 76% on 12 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.9% on 30 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 65.5% on 8 Mar 2026. $13.05M traded over the market's life.
734 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 6:48 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 34 points, 7 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Mar 2026 | 50.0% |
| 1 May 2026 | 2.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-end-of-military-operations-against-iran-by
| Yes |
| 26.69K |
| Anon723 | Yes | 22.92K |
| steeplejack | Yes | 20.85K |
| I-do-stupid-bets | Yes | 19K |
| coinfun | Yes | 17.39K |
| badpolling | Yes | 11.94K |
| troim | Yes | 10K |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
