Latest trade
Jun 8, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 24, 8:24 AM UTC.
Analytics
tetlock has made $40.47 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 23 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-10-11 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Jun 8, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 24, 8:24 AM UTC.
$6.36 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 37 markets; 80.0% were buys. They run from Mar 16, 2026 UTC to Jun 8, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 2.33 | $0.860 | $2.22 | +$0.22 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?No | buy | 22.17 | $0.596 | $13.22 | Jun 8, 2026 UTC |
 |
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-10-11 19:29 UTC
Polymarket public position response
1 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-24 08:24 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-24 08:24 UTC
polymarket positions
24 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-10-11 19:29 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $158.94 and losing ones cost $11.28 across 23 settled positions. 87% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $26.81 on “Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?” (No); the largest loss, $9.23 on “Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?” (Yes).
Its most recent trade on record was on 8 Jun 2026. It has traded 39 markets. Its open positions are worth $2.22 across 1 market.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| buy |
| 19.48 |
| $0.770 |
| $15 |
| May 20, 2026 UTC |
 Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No | buy | 21.74 | $0.690 | $15 | May 20, 2026 UTC |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?No | sell | 27.87 | $0.850 | $23.7 | May 20, 2026 UTC |
 Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Yes | sell | 31.4 | $0.024 | $0.77 | May 20, 2026 UTC |
 Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?No | sell | 18.81 | $0.943 | $17.73 | May 20, 2026 UTC |
 Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?Yes | buy | 55.32 | $0.470 | $26 | May 18, 2026 UTC |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?No | buy | 27.88 | $0.490 | $13.66 | May 18, 2026 UTC |
| Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Yes | buy | 31.41 | $0.318 | $10 | May 18, 2026 UTC |
 Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 52.63 | $0.019 | $1 | May 18, 2026 UTC |
 Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 30.3 | $0.033 | $1 | May 18, 2026 UTC |
 Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 15.15 | $0.066 | $1 | May 18, 2026 UTC |
 Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 166.67 | $0.006 | $1 | May 18, 2026 UTC |
 Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 11.11 | $0.090 | $1 | May 18, 2026 UTC |
 Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 14.29 | $0.070 | $1 | May 18, 2026 UTC |
 Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 25 | $0.040 | $1 | May 18, 2026 UTC |
 Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 43.48 | $0.023 | $1 | May 18, 2026 UTC |
 Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 62.5 | $0.016 | $1 | May 18, 2026 UTC |
 Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | buy | 166.67 | $0.006 | $1 | May 18, 2026 UTC |
 Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?No | buy | 14.29 | $0.070 | $1 | May 18, 2026 UTC |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?Yes | sell | 30.11 | $0.930 | $28 | May 18, 2026 UTC |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?Yes | buy | 30.12 | $0.454 | $13.66 | May 17, 2026 UTC |
 Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?No | buy | 22.39 | $0.610 | $13.66 | May 17, 2026 UTC |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes | buy | 45.02 | $0.620 | $27.91 | May 17, 2026 UTC |
 Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | buy | 24.14 | $0.566 | $13.66 | May 17, 2026 UTC |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?No | sell | 29.52 | $0.998 | $29.46 | May 17, 2026 UTC |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?No | buy | 29.52 | $0.453 | $13.36 | May 13, 2026 UTC |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | buy | 29.69 | $0.450 | $13.36 | May 3, 2026 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?No | buy | 18.82 | $0.710 | $13.36 | May 3, 2026 UTC |
 Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?Yes | buy | 19.09 | $0.700 | $13.36 | May 3, 2026 UTC |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No | buy | 23.86 | $0.560 | $13.36 | May 3, 2026 UTC |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?No | buy | 25.75 | $0.519 | $13.36 | May 3, 2026 UTC |
 Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 39.0 on May 8, 2026?Yes | buy | 27.27 | $0.490 | $13.36 | May 3, 2026 UTC |
 SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Yes | buy | 30.36 | $0.440 | $13.36 | May 3, 2026 UTC |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No | buy | 23.86 | $0.560 | $13.36 | May 3, 2026 UTC |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?No | buy | 23.64 | $0.550 | $13 | May 3, 2026 UTC |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?No | buy | 27.12 | $0.503 | $13.63 | May 3, 2026 UTC |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No | sell | 1.55 | $0.999 | $1.55 | May 2, 2026 UTC |
 Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?Yes | buy | 6.43 | $0.280 | $1.8 | Apr 13, 2026 UTC |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No | buy | 1.56 | $0.770 | $1.2 | Mar 30, 2026 UTC |
 Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?Yes | buy | 2.84 | $0.749 | $2.13 | Mar 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?No | sell | 2.56 | $0.995 | $2.55 | Mar 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?Yes | sell | 2.16 | $0.999 | $2.16 | Mar 30, 2026 UTC |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?No | buy | 3.17 | $0.631 | $2 | Mar 21, 2026 UTC |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22?No | sell | 2.74 | $0.996 | $2.73 | Mar 21, 2026 UTC |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on March 20, 2026?Yes | sell | 2.72 | $0.989 | $2.69 | Mar 21, 2026 UTC |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22?No | buy | 2.74 | $0.430 | $1.18 | Mar 16, 2026 UTC |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on March 20, 2026?Yes | buy | 2.72 | $0.367 | $1 | Mar 16, 2026 UTC |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No | buy | 2.33 | $0.860 | $2 | Mar 16, 2026 UTC |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?No | buy | 2.56 | $0.780 | $2 | Mar 16, 2026 UTC |
2 of 4 axes ranked against the 121 wallets on the Radar board (crypto positions observed 2026-09-20); the others stay on fixed scales, as each axis says. Not drawn for this wallet: 4 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.