Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on March 20, 2026?

Resolved

Yes, settled Mar 21, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Mar 21, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 21 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 92.6%. Yes opened at 49.3% on 13 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 13 Mar 2026 to 21 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 92.6% on 21 Mar 2026 and the lowest 25.9% on 19 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 59 points up, to 92.6% on 21 Mar 2026.

34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 22, 1:15 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 13 Mar 2026 – 21 Mar 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
13 Mar 2026	49.3%
21 Mar 2026	92.6%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	7.22K
Olrefand2	No	1.82K
TENETENET	No	678.37
Ardtysrt01	No	291.86

10 of 34 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on March 20, 2026. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.