Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?No | sell | 1.8K | $0.998 | $1.8K | May 14, 2026 |
 |
| buy |
| 106.3 |
| $0.942 |
| $100.13 |
| Mar 6, 2026 |
 Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?Yes | sell | 110.91 | $0.903 | $100.12 | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes | buy | 271.16 | $0.945 | $256.25 | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?Yes | buy | 110.91 | $0.920 | $102.04 | Mar 5, 2026 |
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?No | sell | 505.29 | $0.989 | $499.73 | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?No | buy | 505.29 | $0.964 | $487.1 | Mar 4, 2026 |
 Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?No | sell | 99.86 | $0.849 | $84.78 | Mar 4, 2026 |
 Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?No | sell | 479.34 | $0.240 | $115.04 | Mar 4, 2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?No | buy | 437.86 | $0.832 | $364.26 | Mar 3, 2026 |
 Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?No | sell | 489.02 | $0.980 | $479.34 | Mar 3, 2026 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 1.3K | $0.930 | $1.21K | Feb 19, 2026 |
 Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged?No | sell | 1.22K | $0.994 | $1.21K | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged?No | buy | 1.22K | $0.984 | $1.2K | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?No | buy | 200 | $0.965 | $193 | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?No | sell | 789 | $0.982 | $774.46 | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?No | buy | 489.02 | $0.946 | $462.61 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?No | buy | 789 | $0.900 | $710.1 | Jan 15, 2026 |
 Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No | buy | 1K | $0.960 | $960 | Jan 2, 2026 |
 Will Elizabeth Holmes launch a coin by December 31?No | buy | 331.37 | $0.990 | $328.06 | Dec 15, 2025 |
 Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?Yes | buy | 1.08K | $0.981 | $1.06K | Dec 15, 2025 |
 Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?Yes | buy | 987.56 | $0.983 | $970.77 | Dec 12, 2025 |
 Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?No | buy | 672.53 | $0.930 | $625.45 | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?No | buy | 298.24 | $0.950 | $283.33 | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?No | sell | 284.75 | $0.995 | $283.33 | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?Yes | buy | 402.05 | $0.956 | $384.36 | Dec 1, 2025 |
 Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?No | sell | 200 | $0.922 | $184.36 | Dec 1, 2025 |
 Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?No | buy | 413.29 | $0.969 | $400.48 | Nov 15, 2025 |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November?No | buy | 200 | $0.967 | $193.4 | Nov 15, 2025 |
 Will Trump win FIFA Peace Prize?Yes | buy | 262.46 | $0.949 | $249.07 | Nov 14, 2025 |
 US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?No | buy | 358.19 | $0.946 | $338.85 | Nov 13, 2025 |
 Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?No | buy | 200 | $0.982 | $196.4 | Nov 13, 2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?No | buy | 200 | $0.981 | $196.2 | Nov 13, 2025 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?No | buy | 200 | $0.950 | $190 | Nov 13, 2025 |
 Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025?No | buy | 300 | $0.958 | $287.4 | Nov 13, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?No | buy | 284.75 | $0.979 | $278.77 | Nov 12, 2025 |
| Will Trump win FIFA Peace Prize?Yes | buy | 362.99 | $0.975 | $353.85 | Nov 12, 2025 |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025?No | buy | 200 | $0.964 | $192.8 | Nov 12, 2025 |
| Will the government shutdown end November 14?No | buy | 500 | $0.980 | $490 | Nov 12, 2025 |
 Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.975 | $487.48 | Nov 12, 2025 |
 Will Base launch a token in 2025?No | buy | 229.9 | $0.957 | $220.01 | Nov 5, 2025 |
 NATO article 5 in 2025?No | buy | 200 | $0.978 | $195.63 | Nov 5, 2025 |
 Pepe ETF in 2025?No | buy | 200 | $0.979 | $195.78 | Nov 5, 2025 |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Yes | sell | 831.1 | $0.943 | $783.73 | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Yes | buy | 53.37 | $0.922 | $49.21 | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Yes | buy | 405.45 | $0.917 | $371.8 | Nov 3, 2025 |
 Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes | sell | 447.95 | $0.830 | $371.8 | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Yes | buy | 372.28 | $0.947 | $352.55 | Nov 1, 2025 |
| Will Base launch a token in 2025?No | buy | 373 | $0.956 | $356.59 | Nov 1, 2025 |
 Will Anthropic’s Claude 4.5 Sonnet win the NOF1.ai competition?No | buy | 49.21 | $0.930 | $45.77 | Oct 25, 2025 |