
Resolved No on 1 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 2.9% on 29 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 29 Jan 2026 to 28 Feb 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 2.9% on 30 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 27 Feb 2026. $2.74M traded over the market's life.
652 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 4:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 29 Jan 2026 – 28 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2026 | 2.9% |
| 28 Feb 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Wavy-Hoof | Yes | 30.07K |
| abbialle | Yes | 18.3K |
| wally-abc | Yes | 13.31K |
| Blond-Gelding | Yes | 13.2K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is widely and credibly confirmed that the January 27, 2026 incident in which Rep. Ilhan Omar was sprayed with an unknown liquid at a Minneapolis town hall was staged, pre-arranged, orchestrated, fake, or otherwise not a genuine adversarial attack — including if broad consensus from credible reporting, or official statements (e.g., from law enforcement, U.S. government, or equivalent credible sources), confirms it was staged or pre-arranged. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements from the U.S. government, law enforcement agencies, or major credible news organizations concluding that the incident was staged or pre-arranged will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. If no broad consensus from credible reporting and authoritative statements has been reached by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.”
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ilhan-omar-town-hall-attack-staged
| Sweaty-Lunchroom | Yes | 10.7K |
| Trump4U | Yes | 8.13K |
| James.eth | Yes | 8.1K |
| Katakuna | Yes | 7.82K |
| Romanv | Yes | 6.28K |
| NAH777 | Yes | 5.99K |
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