Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 8% on 29 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 219 daily closes on record from 29 May 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 11.2% on 10 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.6 points up, to 11.2% on 10 Sep 2025. $299.46K traded over the market's life.
85 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 219 points, 29 May 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 May 2025 | 8.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| thomas111 | Yes | 12.46K |
| terminalline - 20450 | Yes | 5.22K |
| Vain-Misplacement | Yes | 3.64K |
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nato-article-5-in-2025-763
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Bobanskills | Yes | 1.59K |
| BrutallyHonest | Yes | 1.5K |
| SackMAN10 | Yes | 926.79 |
| bruzze | Yes | 833.33 |
| luckystrike | Yes | 701 |
| Several-Deduce | Yes | 611.45 |
| DegenDentist | Yes | 600 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
