Latest trade
Jan 28, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 21, 12:44 PM UTC.
Analytics
lucas37416 is down $2.48 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 17 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-01-28 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Jan 28, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 21, 12:44 PM UTC.
$1 median trade
Its latest 35 trades covered 31 markets; 91.4% were buys. They run from Dec 18, 2025 UTC to Jan 28, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 4.17 | $0.240 | $0.12 | -$0.88 |
 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?No | buy | 3.2 | $0.940 | $3.01 | Jan 28, 2026 UTC |
|
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-01-28 23:10 UTC
Polymarket public position response
3 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-21 12:44 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
35 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-21 12:44 UTC
polymarket positions
19 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-01-28 23:10 UTC
Last checked just now.
Winning positions brought in $3 and losing ones cost $0.83 across 17 settled positions. 82.4% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $0.87 on “First to 5k: Gold or ETH?” (Gold); the largest loss, $0.36 on “StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?” (Yes).
Its most recent trade on record was on 28 Jan 2026. It has traded 31 markets. Its open positions are worth $0.16 across 3 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| Yes |
| 7.69 |
| $0.260 |
| $0.03 |
| -$1.97 |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 8 | $0.250 | $0.01 | -$1.99 |
| buy |
| 2.43 |
| $0.740 |
| $1.8 |
| Jan 28, 2026 UTC |
| Zama auction clearing price above $0.04?Yes | buy | 1.92 | $0.830 | $1.59 | Jan 24, 2026 UTC |
 First to 5k: Gold or ETH?Gold | buy | 2.89 | $0.700 | $2.02 | Jan 10, 2026 UTC |
 Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?Yes | buy | 1.47 | $0.680 | $1 | Jan 10, 2026 UTC |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes | buy | 8 | $0.250 | $2 | Jan 10, 2026 UTC |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes | buy | 7.69 | $0.260 | $2 | Jan 10, 2026 UTC |
 US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 3.51 | $0.570 | $2 | Jan 10, 2026 UTC |
 Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?No | buy | 1.19 | $0.840 | $1 | Jan 10, 2026 UTC |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?No | buy | 1.6 | $0.940 | $1.5 | Jan 10, 2026 UTC |
 Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?No | buy | 4.17 | $0.240 | $1 | Jan 10, 2026 UTC |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes | buy | 4.17 | $0.240 | $1 | Jan 10, 2026 UTC |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?No | buy | 2.07 | $0.967 | $2 | Jan 10, 2026 UTC |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?No | buy | 1.25 | $0.800 | $1 | Jan 10, 2026 UTC |
 Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No | buy | 2.27 | $0.770 | $1.75 | Dec 24, 2025 UTC |
 StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes | sell | 1.51 | $0.420 | $0.63 | Dec 24, 2025 UTC |
 Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31?No | buy | 1.82 | $0.840 | $1.53 | Dec 20, 2025 UTC |
 Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?Yes | sell | 2.3 | $0.313 | $0.72 | Dec 20, 2025 UTC |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?Yes | sell | 2.7 | $0.300 | $0.81 | Dec 20, 2025 UTC |
 Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes | buy | 1.7 | $0.960 | $1.63 | Dec 20, 2025 UTC |
 Maduro out in 2025?No | buy | 3.85 | $0.956 | $3.68 | Dec 18, 2025 UTC |
 Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025?No | buy | 2.04 | $0.979 | $2 | Dec 18, 2025 UTC |
 Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?No | buy | 1.1 | $0.910 | $1 | Dec 18, 2025 UTC |
 Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?No | buy | 1.43 | $0.700 | $1 | Dec 18, 2025 UTC |
| StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes | buy | 1.52 | $0.660 | $1 | Dec 18, 2025 UTC |
 US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?No | buy | 1.15 | $0.870 | $1 | Dec 18, 2025 UTC |
 Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?No | buy | 1.47 | $0.680 | $1 | Dec 18, 2025 UTC |
| Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025?Yes | buy | 1.7 | $0.880 | $1.5 | Dec 18, 2025 UTC |
 Clippers vs. ThunderThunder | buy | 1.63 | $0.920 | $1.5 | Dec 18, 2025 UTC |
 Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?Yes | buy | 1.61 | $0.930 | $1.5 | Dec 18, 2025 UTC |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?Yes | buy | 2.7 | $0.370 | $1 | Dec 18, 2025 UTC |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?Yes | buy | 2.3 | $0.434 | $1 | Dec 18, 2025 UTC |
 Ukraine strike on Moscow municipality by December 31?No | buy | 1.09 | $0.920 | $1 | Dec 18, 2025 UTC |
| Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31?No | buy | 1.49 | $0.670 | $1 | Dec 18, 2025 UTC |
| Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 19?No | buy | 1.12 | $0.890 | $1 | Dec 18, 2025 UTC |
Placed on fixed scales: no Radar board ranking was cached on this server when the profile was read, so no archetype is claimed. Not drawn for this wallet: 2 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.