
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 50% on 13 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 112 daily closes on record from 13 Sep 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 90% on 9 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 27 points up, to 74% on 25 Oct 2025. $1.47M traded over the market's life.
401 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 24, 2:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 112 points, 13 Sep 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Sep 2025 | 50.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| elPolloLoco | Yes | 65.12K |
| Audrey.d | Yes | 40.51K |
| 63fad | Yes | 15K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Pokrovsk by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Pokrovsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Rih" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the Pokrovsk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Pokrovsk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovosk+Location.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ixAs4fF8n8ccVeL17 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
| Yes |
| 11.91K |
| Coordinated-Conifer | Yes | 9.2K |
| Ebakaserj | Yes | 6.26K |
| tchaikovsky2000 | Yes | 5.91K |
| Southusa | Yes | 5.39K |
| ivanmzivkovic | Yes | 5.03K |
| Dearest-Aide | Yes | 4.32K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-pokrovsk-by-september-30
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