Analytics
Resolved Yes on 16 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 91.5%. Yes opened at 15% on 7 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 7 Jan 2026 to 16 Jan 2026, the highest close was 91.5% on 16 Jan 2026 and the lowest 9.5% on 8 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 64 points up, to 77.5% on 10 Jan 2026. $1.92M traded over the market's life.
545 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 17, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 7 Jan 2026 – 16 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Jan 2026 | 15.0% |
| 16 Jan 2026 | 91.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Serdna | No | 61.57K |
| AllByMyseIf | No | 38.85K |
| kazerein | No | 35.38K |
| mick888 | No | 21.29K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 1) Public statements from both Donald Trump and Maria Corina Machado announcing that they are sharing the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize or that the Nobel prize has been transferred to Trump. This does not require official confirmation from the Nobel Prize or the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Only statements from both Machado and Trump which demonstrate that they are currently sharing, will share, or have decided to share the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize will count. Statements that merely express a desire to share the prize or otherwise endorse the idea of sharing, without clearly demonstrating an agreement to share or an active sharing of the prize, will not count. 2) A consensus of credible reporting or statements from both Machado and Trump confirm that the physical 2025 Nobel Peace Prize medal has been transferred to Trump for permanent ownership or joint ownership with Machado. 3) The Nobel Prize or the Norwegian Nobel Committee officially recognize Donald Trump as a co-recipient of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and Maria Corina Machado, official information from the Nobel Peace Prize or the Norwegian Nobel Committee (https://www.nobelprize.org/), and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-and-machado-share-the-nobel-peace-prize
| Elementary-Tourism | No | 20K |
| duderr | No | 12.12K |
| Pleasing-Professional | No | 10.21K |
| Misty Pioneer CE43 | No | 8.64K |
| Baggy-Brilliant | No | 5.62K |
| 0xrm | No | 4.27K |
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