Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 32.5% on 18 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 106 daily closes on record from 18 Sep 2025 to 31 Dec 2025, the highest close was 74% on 7 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.8% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 0.8% on 31 Dec 2025. $9.04M traded over the market's life.
614 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 106 points, 18 Sep 2025 – 31 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2025 | 32.5% |
| 31 Dec 2025 | 0.8% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Lighter's token is greater than $4,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Lighter doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/lighter-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Yes |
| 80.98K |
| Potlood | Yes | 66.1K |
| SeerOfOdds | Yes | 58.58K |
| Peter12345 | Yes | 28.61K |
| Luxurious-Bookmark | Yes | 24.97K |
| Royal Orbit 8A71 | Yes | 22.85K |
| gokutokyo | Yes | 20K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
